Optimistic forecasts for the sea's recovery after the fuel oil spill near Anapa have raised doubts.

The fuel oil spill had no impact on plankton, jellyfish, or mussels. High levels of oil-oxidizing bacteria were recorded in the area where the Volgoneft tankers sank, indicating active self-purification of the sea. Complete cleanup is expected in 2-3 years, according to scientists from the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas. This forecast can only be realized if there are no new emissions, the ecologist countered.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," scientists and authorities in Kuban acknowledged that the environmental consequences of the fuel oil spill in the Kerch Strait have not been eliminated even a year after the tanker sank. On December 14, 2025, the government commission coordinating the cleanup of the fuel oil spill in the Kerch Strait reported that more than 90% of the spilled oil had been collected. On January 1, after a severe storm, bloggers reported new fuel oil spills and partial destruction of protective embankments. Alongside the nets left by the destroyed embankments, layers of previously released fuel oil and new fragmentary spills were discovered on the shore, according to volunteers and bloggers.

Scientists have given optimistic forecasts for the recovery of the Black Sea after the fuel oil spill

An article on the prospects for the recovery of the Black Sea after the fuel oil spill was published on January 10 by "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", citing the opinions of scientists from the Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBSMS RAS) on the results of their research.

"A year after the accident, we found small traces of heavily degraded fuel oil on some beaches in the Krasnodar Territory. No fresh traces of fuel oil pollution were recorded," said a leading researcher at the Laboratory of Chemoecology (chemical pollution of nature) Sergey Alemov, PhD in Biology, Institute of Southern Marine Biology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. According to him, this showed that they were able to "minimize the impact on coastal ecosystems."

"Overall, hydrocarbon concentrations in water, suspended matter, and bottom sediments are at the natural background level, which does not pose a threat to marine organisms," Alemov noted.

It may take up to two to three years for the marine communities affected by the fuel oil spill to fully recover.

The fuel oil that was in the water has changed over the course of a year. "Hydrocarbons were detected at concentrations typical for port waters. No critical values posing a serious threat to humans were detected. This can be explained by the fact that the fuel oil released into the marine environment is a fairly heavy substance that is poorly soluble in water. Over the past year, the fuel oil has changed significantly: it has become denser, plasticine-like, and weathered. This is the result of natural physicochemical processes, as well as the impact of the microbial community," noted Oleg Mironov, a senior researcher at the Chemoecology Laboratory and a PhD candidate in biology.

Scientists have noted high concentrations of oil-oxidizing bacteria in seawater. In the area of the Volgoneft tanker wreck, their concentrations are significantly higher than in other coastal waters of the Black Sea. "The results obtained during the expedition on the Professor Vodyanitsky vessel in December 2025 showed high numbers of oil-oxidizing bacteria in the Kerch Strait, directly in the area of the accident," said Natalia Burdian, a senior researcher at the Chemoecology Laboratory at the Institute of Biological Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a PhD in biology. According to her, such indicators are typical for areas with severe oil pollution and indicate active self-purification processes in the marine environment. Oil-oxidizing bacteria are capable of using oil and petroleum products as their sole source of carbon and energy. The specialist noted that "the number of oil-oxidizing bacteria can be considered indicators of oil pollution, and the oil-oxidizing bacteria themselves are active participants in the process of self-purification of the marine environment from petroleum hydrocarbons."

By the 2026 resort season, the chemical indicators of seawater will not exceed the established maximum permissible levels, provided that there are no repeated discharges of fuel oil from tankers remaining on the bottom of the Kerch Strait.

"Currently, the coastal strip where the fuel oil emissions were initially recorded has been almost completely cleared. It may take up to two to three years for the communities of marine organisms affected by the fuel oil spill to fully recover," said Oleg Mironov.

"Based on the dynamics of the self-purification processes, by the 2026 resort season, the chemical indicators of seawater will not exceed the established maximum permissible levels." standards, provided there are no repeated emissions of fuel oil from tankers remaining on the bottom of the Kerch Strait," the publication quotes Burdian as saying.

Research has not shown the impact of the fuel oil spill on plankton

The institute's website also published the results of plankton studies conducted based on the materials of four expeditions of the research vessel Professor Vodyanitsky, carried out in 2024-2025. The studies compared samples obtained before the accident in the Kerch Strait, immediately after the fuel oil spill, and in the spring and summer of 2025. Samples were collected along the entire Russian Black Sea coast - from Adler to Sevastopol, since the fuel oil spread both to the east and to the west, according to the publication dated December 29, 2025.

"To assess the impact of fuel oil movement along the coast on the abundance and biomass of jellyfish and bivalve larvae, we compared the "Before" and "After" situations, covering the annual life cycles of the organisms. We found no statistically significant differences in jellyfish biomass between the "Before" and "After" periods, meaning the annual life cycle did not change significantly and was consistent with the long-term average, based on previous studies. The abundance of Black Sea mussel larvae also showed no significant decrease. The December 2024 fuel oil spill is not the first incident in the Kerch Strait. It is a repeat of the 2007 spill in the same location. Both of these environmental disasters did not significantly alter the subsequent annual development cycles of plankton and benthos. Coastal ecosystems recover within a few months after such pulsed impacts. "After all, they are incredibly resilient to the impact of various factors. Marine ecosystems have existed for millions of years and will continue to exist for millions of years, even despite this kind of anthropogenic impact," notes Sergei Piontkovsky, chief researcher at the plankton department.

Ecologist doubts scientists' conclusions

Ecologist and head of the working group under the governor of Krasnodar Krai for the development of civil society and human rights, Yevgeny Vitishko, commented on the publication on his Telegram channel. "It seems to be from Rossiyskaya Gazeta, but somehow everything is unsubstantiated, without figures, values, or damage... No, I don't believe it, although I also believe that the sea in the Anapa-Taman area will cleanse itself in about three years... Unless new oil products are added to the area. And that is very likely," he wrote on January 10.

One comment was left on his post. "Volunteers working on the Bugayskaya Spit and in the Temryuk District are already periodically recording new fuel oil emissions," Inna wrote.