Georgia: Russia won't find allies in recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia, experts think differently

Ekaterina Tkeshelashvili, Foreign Minister of Georgia, believes that a possible unilateral recognition by Russia of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will mean nothing. However, experts think that Russia can find allies amidst the world community.

We remind you that on August 21 Abkhazia sent to Russia an appeal of its President and Parliament asking to recognize its independence, and on August 22 a similar appeal was adopted by the Parliament of South Ossetia. And as soon as on August 25, the Lower Chamber of Russian Parliament plans to address Russian leadership with an offer to recognize the independence of these republics.

Ms Tkeshelashvili is sure that such step will damage the political image of Russia, and there is no practical danger in it, since the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia have been recognized by the whole international community, the "News-Georgia" quotes her as saying.

Alexei Makarkin, Deputy Director of the Centre of Political Technologies, who is quoted by the "Vedomosti" newspaper, is sure that both Deputies and Senators will adopt the appeal to the President on recognition of the independence of these republics, however, the latter's reaction will depend on two factors.

"Factor one: will Russia manage to build a coalition of countries ready to recognize the independence of these republics? Russia needs at least someone, at least Belarus, not to have the situation similar to North Cyprus, recognized only by Turkey.

Factor two: relations with Moldova and Azerbaijan in the context of the problems of Transdniestria and Nagorno-Karabakh. What will happen, if Russia recognizes the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? And how to explain why Russia recognizes someone and would not recognize others?" Mr Makarkin explains.

At the same time, Russian Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin believes that Russia should not recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, because it will "burn down bridges" for further negotiations with Georgia and the West. The Russian Ombudsman, former Russian ambassador to the USA, thinks that the decision of this issue should be postponed, since it can provoke Georgia's accession to the NATO. Mr Lukin has emphasized that Russia should take measures to defend its citizens in South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to cut short any actions against these republics, the DEUTSCHE WELLE reports.

However, in the opinion of some experts, the recognition of independence of the Caucasian regions by Russia is the case of the nearest days. Thus, Alexander Rahr, expert of the German Foreign Policy Society (DGAP), said in his interview to the "Nezavisimaya Gazeta" that he has no doubts that in the near future both republics will be recognized by Russia.

It is worth noting that there are also experts who are confident that after Russia the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will be recognized by dozens of countries. Thus, for instance, Maxim Shevchenko, one of the leading Russian journalists and experts on problems of ethno-cultural and religious policies, expressed this viewpoint on air of the "Echo Moskvy" Radio.

It is interesting to note that many Russians are already thinking that Abkhazia and South Ossetia are independent. Thus, according to the latest polling made by the Public Opinion Foundation, 54 percent of respondents think that South Ossetia is independent, and 44 percent think same about Abkhazia.

In the opinion of 66 percent of Russians, should South Ossetia officially apply to join the Russian Federation, such request should be satisfied.

As to Abkhazia, when to respondents in the poll were reminded that Abkhazia is a self-proclaimed republic wishing to quit Georgia and then asked about the stand they find fair, 75 percent of the respondents spoke in support of the Abkhazian position - striving for sovereignty.