New war in Georgia is on the edge, experts think

Russian and Georgian experts believe that recurrence of August events is possible in Georgia in near future.

Tengiz Ablotiya, a Tbilisi-based expert of the Centre of Extreme Journalism, has told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent that in the last recent days skirmishes took place in the Abkhazia-South Ossetia border every night. "They shoot from Abkhazia and South Ossetia at Georgian territory and kill 1-2 persons every night there," said Mr Ablotiya.

"I don't believe that the warfare in Georgia is finally over. It looks very much that a new aggravation is not far off. In August, it all started similarly. At first, shelling was incidental, then frequent, and then - in the non-stop mode," the expert has added.

Sergey Markedonov, a Russian political scientist, has also noted that in the near future the situation will aggravate in the Gali and Akhalgori Districts. In his opinion, Saakashvili will never choose again a new August-scale direct confrontation with Russia, since his "NATO support is sooner moral than real", however, recurrence of the situation of early 1990s - diversions, provocations, attacks in media on Russia - is inevitable.

Besides, the above-quoted expert Tengiz Ablotiya also notes that the information disseminated by Georgian media on October 11-12 about an attempt on Saakashvili being prepared by Ossetians with support of Russian special agencies is not quite reliable. "Initially, the information about the prepared attempt was spread by some little-known Georgian website, then other editions republished it and, finally, a report was shown by the 'Rustavi-2' TV Channel. No convincing evidences were given: allegedly, accomplices met somewhere and talked about preparation of some terror act. The scandal didn't go any further, no more reports followed," said Mr Ablotiya.

He also finds improbable any support by Russia of the Georgian opposition who plan to hold their congress on November 7: "Most of oppositionists are unacceptable for Russia. Quite recently they reproached Saakashvili for being too shy in relations with Russia and exhibiting little toughness."