The military base in Gyumri: surveys record the sensitivity of the topic

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The MPG telephone survey recorded different positions of the residents of Armenia regarding the future of the 102nd Russian military base: some consider it necessary for security, some advocate for its withdrawal, and others support its retention with a review of the conditions. The survey took place against the backdrop of statements by Vladimir Putin about the readiness to withdraw the base and Nikol Pashinyan's position that Armenia does not consider its presence vital. The discussion about the military base is not new.

Results of the MPG survey

From September 22 to 24, 2026, the company "MPG", a full member of the Gallup International Association in Armenia, conducted a telephone survey of 1001 people ¹. Participants were reminded that after the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on September 1, 2026, the Russian president stated the possibility of withdrawing the 102nd Russian military base from Armenia if Yerevan considers its presence unnecessary ². Respondents were asked which of the proposed options most closely aligns with the interests of Armenia and its people.

The results of the survey were distributed as follows:

39.7% of survey participants linked the presence of the 102nd base to ensuring the security of Armenia. 24.7% expressed support for retaining the base with a review of its conditions. 28.9% of respondents advocated for the withdrawal of the base, while another 6.8% struggled to answer. The results were presented on September 25 by the head of the Armenian representation of the Gallup International Association, Aram Navasardyan ³.

TASS, publishing data from the same study, combined the first two categories—39.7% considering the base necessary for security and 24.7% advocating for its retention with a review of conditions—and reported that more than half of the residents of Armenia support the retention of the 102nd Russian military base. This presentation of data is an interpretation by TASS ⁴.

Context of the survey

The survey was conducted against the backdrop of discussions about the future of the base. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia would not oppose its withdrawal if such a decision is made by Russia, and that there is no vital necessity for its presence ⁵. The chairman of the parliamentary commission on defense and security, Vilen Gabrielyan, believes that the base did not fulfill its mission, particularly failing to protect the territory of Armenia from attacks in 2021-2022, and that its withdrawal would not negatively impact the country's security ⁶.

Pro-Russian politicians and some Armenian opposition figures pointed to the possible consequences of the base's withdrawal. Actual State Advisor of Russia Andrey Klintsevich called Pashinyan's statements a course towards dismantling Armenia's security system ⁷. Deputy of the "Strong Armenia" faction Aik Farmanyan estimated the potential loss of jobs due to the base's closure at 15,000, considering related employment in the Shirak region ⁸. Former deputy Tigran Abramyan raised the question of who would guard the Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders after the departure of Russian border guards ⁹.

Residents' opinions in Gyumri in 2017

Nine years ago, in September 2017, the "Caucasian Knot" already surveyed the residents of Gyumri about their attitude towards Russian servicemen. The journalistic investigation was conducted after incidents involving servicemen of the 102nd base, including the murder of six members of the Avetisyan family in 2015.

Residents surveyed by the correspondent reported a deterioration in their attitude towards Russian servicemen. The head of the "Shirak Center", Vaan Tumasyan, spoke of a "cooling of relations", noting the absence of hatred towards Russian soldiers. Economist Voskanyan Martirosyan also mentioned that citizens have become more cautious in their interactions with servicemen but do not feel fear towards them.

At the same time, some residents emphasized that the actions of individual servicemen should not be used to judge the entire Russian contingent. Some residents considered the presence of the base necessary for the security of Armenia. Human rights defender Arthur Sakunts, on the contrary, spoke of the doubts that have arisen among residents about whether the base ensures the security of Armenia or poses a threat to citizens.

The military base as a factor in the 2026 elections

In 2026, at the beginning of the election campaign in Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, speaking at a rally in Gyumri on May 25, promised to personally address the issues of developing the country's second city ¹⁰. Some residents linked his future to the retention of the Russian military base. For instance, a shop owner, whose store is reportedly oriented towards Russian servicemen, expressed concerns about the economic consequences of a possible withdrawal of the base and stated that he would like to see a "pro-Russian leader" in power.

In June 2026, ahead of the parliamentary elections, a correspondent from the "Caucasian Knot" spoke with residents of Gyumri and employees of the 102nd base to verify reports from human rights organizations about possible pressure on base employees during the parliamentary elections.

A civilian employee of the base, Khoren Gevorgyan, reported that he was advised not to vote for Nikol Pashinyan. A driver of the base, Arman Movsisyan, claimed that support for Pashinyan among employees was not welcomed and that, in his opinion, voting against this position could lead to job loss. The owner of a fitness club in Gyumri stated that about 70% of his clients are Russian servicemen and that he is economically dependent on their presence.

Economist Samvel Markosyan estimated the number of civilian employees of the base at a minimum of 500 people and spoke of the dependence of dozens of local businesses, including shops, cafes, salons, and other services, on the base. Journalist Shushan Margaryan also noted the economic dependence of part of Gyumri on Russian servicemen.

It is worth noting that during the parliamentary elections in Russia from September 18 to 20, 2026, one of the polling stations for Russians was organized in Gyumri. Early voting was also conducted here "for certain groups of citizens".

Notes

1. Survey: 39.7% of citizens believe that the 102nd military base is necessary for the security of Armenia // Aysor.am, 25.09.2026.
2. Putin: Russia is ready to leave the base in Gyumri at any time // Kommersant, 02.09.2026.
3. Survey: 39.7% of citizens believe that the 102nd military base is necessary for the security of Armenia // Aysor.am, 25.09.2026.
4. Gallup: more than 60% of Armenians support the retention of the Russian military base // TASS, 25.09.2026.
5. Yerevan does not see the presence of the Russian military base in Armenia as a vital necessity // Interfax, 03.09.2026.
6. Vilen Gabrielyan: Armenia can increase the rent for the stay of the Russian military base if gas prices rise - Factor.am // News.am, 12.09.2026.
7. https://t.me/aklintsevich/11140
8. The closure of the Russian base in Gyumri could lead to the loss of up to 15,000 jobs — Farmanyan // Voice of Armenia, 02.09.2026.
9. Who will guard the vast Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Iranian borders after Russia's departure? // Aysor.am, 04.09.2026.
10. Pashinyan conducts an election campaign in Gyumri ahead of the elections on June 7 // Armenpress.am, 25.05.2026.