Attacks on grain terminals in Novorossiysk have struck a blow to the agricultural business.

The suspension of operations at two grain terminals in Novorossiysk following drone attacks will lead to a significant reduction in grain exports and increase the risk of bankruptcy for agricultural producers amid constantly falling grain prices, analysts noted.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", after the drone attack in Novorossiysk, the operations of two of the three grain terminals in the port were suspended - the infrastructure for handling agricultural cargo at the Novorossiysk grain terminal and the grain terminal of the Novorossiysk bread products plant, owned by the United Grain Company, was damaged. Six private houses and at least one apartment were completely destroyed, and over 90 residential buildings were damaged in total. As a result of the attack, three people died, and another 24 were injured. Dozens of houses in Novorossiysk were damaged, a bridge collapsed, and electricity and water were partially cut off.

Grain sales have virtually stopped amid attacks on ships and port terminals

The combined capacity of the Novorossiysk grain terminal and the terminal of the Novorossiysk bread products plant, which were reported damaged after the drone attack on the night of August 12, is almost 16 million tons per year. If the suspension of two of the three main terminals, through which Russian grain is supplied southward, lasts for a long time, it will affect exports. Because there are almost no alternative routes. Of course, grain can be transported by rail to the Baltic ports, but this is time-consuming and expensive, writes BFM.

Grain is now an unsellable commodity. It cannot be sold.

The head of the KFH Kolesnikovs from the Stavropol region Sergey Kolesnikov stated that major traders have completely stopped purchasing any grain. "That is, they are not buying at all. Some grain is still going to the Caspian, although shipments of barley to the Caspian have also stopped now. We need to settle accounts for the fertilizers supplied, protection means, bank loans, and the main payments are approaching. September for most, October, September, August - practically no one sold anything. Everyone has grain in warehouses, we joke that grain is 'priceless'. That is, there is no price. Grain is now an unsellable commodity. It cannot be sold," his words are quoted in the publication.

Strikes on ships and port infrastructure have affected everything, believes the CEO of seed producer AO "Shchelkovo Agrokhim" Salis Karakotov.

"First of all, they affected the solvency of the agricultural sector, which owes us very large sums. We see that they are unable to pay them. This is the first thing that the Novorossiysk port affected. Secondly, what we used to bring through the Novorossiysk port, we are forced to transport around, through Europe, to St. Petersburg. This extends the route several times. That is, the situation with the Novorossiysk port has complicated everything," his words are quoted in the publication.

The CEO of the analytical company "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko says that on August 11, he estimated grain exports in August at 2.5 million tons (positive scenario) - this is 2.3 times less than the average export volume for this month during the period from 2021 to 2025. If shipments of grain from Novorossiysk stop, then exports may amount to 1.5 million tons at best, writes "Agroinvestor".

In the south, grain purchases were reduced last week and have practically stopped at the beginning of this week. That is, talking about the price now in southern Russia can be purely theoretical, because there are no buyers.

Vladimir Petrichenko expects a very sharp decline in shipment rates, a halt in exports. "Only the Caspian, Baltic terminals, and the two remaining terminals on the Black Sea can work for export. There will be difficulties with exports in September as well," the economist added. This will put pressure on domestic grain prices in Russia.

"In the south, grain purchases were reduced last week and have practically stopped at the beginning of this week. That is, talking about the price now in southern Russia can be purely theoretical, because there are no buyers. Accordingly, in other regions of Russia, trading activity in the grain market will sharply decline. And prices will be very uncertain," said Petrichenko.

The situation threatens bankruptcy for agricultural producers

The average August export in 2021–2025 was 5.7 million tons, noted the head of the consulting company "Sovecon" Andrey Sizov.

"We estimated Russian wheat exports in August at 3–3.4 million tons before these events, which was an extremely low figure for August - about one and a half times lower than the average volumes for this month. After these events, August estimates will be lower. Previously, we assumed that all terminals would continue to operate. If they do not operate throughout August - and this is still an open question - then we can subtract about 0.5-0.7 million tons from the previous estimate for August," "Agroexpert" quotes him.

The president of the Russian Grain Union Arkadiy Zlochevsky noted that the blow to the industry is very serious. In some regions, grain is already being sold significantly below cost. If the situation drags on, it could lead to mass bankruptcies of agricultural producers and jeopardize the 2027 sowing season.

"Today, wheat prices are falling at a rate of 100–200 rubles per day and are already much lower than the cost in a huge number of regions," his words are quoted by MSK1.