Baku analysts stated that the balance of power in the relations between Azerbaijan and Russia has changed.

Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia are emerging from a period of crisis, but their new model will be built on different conditions. Baku demonstrates greater independence in foreign policy, while Moscow is interested in maintaining cooperation with Azerbaijan as an important regional partner, Azerbaijani analysts noted.

As reported by "Caucasian Knot", Azerbaijan's support for Ukraine's territorial integrity is a subject of disagreement between Moscow and Baku, but it should not affect Russian-Azerbaijani relations, said Putin's press secretary. Ilham Aliyev called the crisis in relations with the Russian Federation exhausted, but mocked some of Moscow's steps.

Baku is ready for discussion on the principles of equality

According to the editor of the Turan Analytical Service Shahin Gadjiev, the statement by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the media forum in Shusha that the difficulties in relations between Baku and Moscow are "behind us" and that bilateral relations are "fully normalized" should be viewed in the context of his other statements at this event, particularly his position on the issue of Ukraine's territorial integrity.

The leadership of Azerbaijan believes that Moscow should take Baku's position into account and not impose unilateral conditions.

According to the expert, this is a signal that the Kremlin should consider the position of the Azerbaijani leadership and respect it.

"The leadership of Azerbaijan believes that Moscow should take Baku's position into account and not impose unilateral conditions, and that bilateral relations should be based on the principles of equality and mutual respect for interests," Gadjiev told a correspondent of the "Caucasian Knot."

In his opinion, Aliyev's statement also reflects Azerbaijan's readiness to discuss issues of mutual interest. However, as the expert noted, this should occur within the framework of the diplomatic process, not through public discussions in which attempts are made to pressure Baku using pro-Kremlin politicians, deputies, and media representatives.

In response to a question about how statements regarding the normalization of bilateral relations correspond to the situation with court sentences against ethnic Azerbaijanis in Russia and Russian citizens in Azerbaijan, Gadjiev noted that this problem is not insurmountable. According to him, in the dialogue process, the parties can find mutually acceptable solutions.

17:00 01.04.2025

Geopolitical confrontation: what the crash of the AZAL plane led to

After the crash of the "Azerbaijan Airlines" (AZAL) plane over Russian territory, diplomatic relations between the countries took on a negative shade. Journalists from Meydan.TV prepared material on how the political rhetoric of Russia and Azerbaijan is changing and what consequences the confrontation between Ilham Aliyev and Vladimir Putin may lead to.

Back in April, the foreign ministries of Azerbaijan and Russia announced the resolution of the issue regarding the AZAL plane crash in Kazakhstan. Since then, representatives of official Baku have not raised this topic publicly, Gadjiev noted.

Commenting on Ilham Aliyev's joke during a dialogue with journalist Alexey Naumov at the Shusha Forum about the need to be "careful" given that last year's Russian participants of the event Mikhail Gusman and Sergey Markov* "suffered" (Gusman was relieved of his position as deputy general director of the TASS agency, and Markov* was recognized as a foreign agent), Gadjiev noted that he does not recall similar remarks from the President of Azerbaijan towards Russian representatives before. In his opinion, this has become another indication that Aliyev feels confident and does not expect a serious negative reaction from Russia.

The decline of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus has affected relations with Azerbaijan

Overall, the expert believes that the balance of power in bilateral relations has significantly changed after the crisis of 2025-2026. Azerbaijan openly demonstrates that it no longer intends to build its policy with an eye on Moscow, while Russia, in his opinion, is now more interested in normalizing relations with Baku than Azerbaijan is with the Russian Federation.

Azerbaijan acquires additional significance for Russia as a major regional partner, transport hub, and participant in routes connecting Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and China.

"In recent years, much has changed in the world and the region. Russia is no longer the country it was before February 2022 in political, economic, and military terms. Moscow has lost a significant part of its influence over Ukraine, and Moldova is accelerating its movement towards the European Union. Today, one of Russia's priorities is to maintain its political and economic positions in the South Caucasus. However, even here, Moscow's opportunities have diminished against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Armenia, the expansion of Western presence, and the strengthening role of Turkey and China. Moscow's pressure on Yerevan, including economic measures, has not led to the Armenian leadership abandoning its course towards closer cooperation with the West. In these conditions, Azerbaijan acquires additional significance for Russia as a major regional partner, transport hub, and participant in routes connecting Europe, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and China. Therefore, Moscow is increasingly forced to take Azerbaijan's position into account. In addition, Russia seeks to maintain its participation in the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia," Gadjiev said.

In his opinion, the previous relations between Baku and Moscow will no longer exist.

In particular, despite Moscow's desire to resume the activities of structures such as the "Russian House" under the pretext of humanitarian cooperation, as well as to promote ideas of closer interaction within the framework of Eurasian integration in Azerbaijan, Baku will not support such initiatives.

At the same time, Gadjiev emphasized that Russia's concerns are also related to the activation of the European Union's course towards rapprochement with the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, Brussels' support for the Middle Transport Corridor project, as well as the return of the issue of constructing the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and then to Europe to the agenda.

In the context of increasing sanctions pressure, Azerbaijan's significance as a trading partner and transport-logistics hub for Russia is growing.

Member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for Eurointegration Togrul Juvarly also believes that under current conditions, Russia needs Azerbaijan more than Baku needs Moscow.

"In the context of increasing sanctions pressure, Azerbaijan's significance as a trading partner and transport-logistics hub for Russia is growing. Azerbaijan is a supplier of important agricultural products — vegetables and fruits — and at the same time a market for Russian goods. In addition, one of Russia's key transport routes to Iran passes through Azerbaijan. Through the territory of Azerbaijan, Russia also obtained railway communication with Armenia, which Moscow seeks to keep within its sphere of influence," Juvarly noted.

The maximum that Moscow can achieve from Azerbaijan is the preservation of its neutrality and the prevention of the use of its territory for unfriendly purposes against Russia.

In his opinion, Russia has lost a significant part of its leverage over Azerbaijan's foreign policy.

"The maximum that Moscow can achieve from Azerbaijan is the preservation of its neutrality and the prevention of the use of its territory for unfriendly purposes against Russia. However, Moscow will no longer be able to achieve from Baku a refusal to support Ukraine's territorial integrity, humanitarian aid to Kyiv, energy partnership, and economic cooperation with the Ukrainian side," Juvarly believes.

Baku is focused on pragmatic cooperation

Another analyst noted that relations between Baku and Moscow are entering a qualitatively new level.

"Baku is striving for Moscow to treat it as an equal partner. Azerbaijan is set for constructive and pragmatic cooperation with Russia based on the principles of mutual respect and mutual benefit. Within these frameworks, existing problems can be resolved. I believe that the issue of compensation for the downed plane is fundamentally resolved, and only the question of its practical implementation remains," he told a correspondent of the "Caucasian Knot" on the condition of anonymity.

The situation with the arrested may also be resolved on the basis of the principle of exchange or partial exchange, the analyst believes.

"However, the difficulty may arise from the fact that some of the arrested Russian citizens in Azerbaijan may not want to return to the Russian Federation and will seek the opportunity to leave for a third country. If Moscow insists on their transfer to Russia, Baku may face international legal issues, as the transfer of a person to another country must be carried out with respect to their rights and the procedures provided for by international law. Nevertheless, all these issues are resolvable," the analyst said.