A political scientist assessed the parties' prospects for winning the Armenian parliamentary elections.

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Prime Minister Pashinyan's Civil Contract party is using the threat of war as a fear factor in the parliamentary elections, while his rivals Karapetyan's Strong Armenia, Kocharyan's Armenia bloc, and Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia are using the threat of severing economic relations with Russia.

As "Caucasian Knot" wrote, as of April 21, the Central Election Commission of Armenia accepted documents from more than 20 political parties and alliances that have expressed a desire to participate in the parliamentary elections on June 7. Registration of electoral lists will begin on April 23.

The press service of Strong Armenia reported that the party signed a memorandum on the creation of an alliance with Harutyun Harutyunyan, chairman of the New Era party, and Nairi Sargsyan, plenipotentiary representative of the United Armenians party. The National Liberal Political Party "Heritage" led by Raffi Hovhannisyan, the "Freedom" Party, led by former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan, and the "Democratic National Union of Armenia" Party, led by Armenia's first Prime Minister Vazgen Manukyan, expressed support and expressed their readiness to cooperate with the "Strong Armenia" Party. All parties stated that they "are uniting around the political agenda and election program of the "Strong Armenia" Party and will act on the principles of strengthening statehood, protecting national and spiritual values, effective and accountable governance, sustainable economic development, ensuring legal and social justice, and solidarity."

On April 11, approximately 40,000 people joined the rally and march in Yerevan organized by "Strong Armenia." On April 14, the day after the opening of the registration of parties with the Central Election Commission for participation in the elections, detentions began, members and supporters of the party were detained on charges of giving and receiving electoral bribery.

The press secretary of the party, Marianna Ghahramanyan, commenting on the actions of law enforcement agencies, told a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent on April 21 that "the ruling party is trying to create a pretext so that Strong Armenia does not register for participation in the elections, thus eliminating a strong competitor."

A member of the Strong Armenia party, co-founder and partner of the law firm "GM LEGAL" Gohar Meloyan informed a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent that "15 people were detained in the city of Artashat, 17 people in Yerevan during the action "Freedom for Karapetyan."

"At the hearing of the case of seven detainees, the court ordered house arrest for six individuals, while the petition for one citizen was rejected and he was released," she said.

Regarding the question of whether Samvel Karapetyan can run for prime minister, Meloyan noted that, "according to the Constitution, he cannot, since he does not meet the conditions – four years of residence in Armenia and four years of being an Armenian citizen."

The Strong Armenia Party announced to its voters that it will present a draft constitutional amendment at the first session, which will result in Samvel Karapetyan being elected prime minister.

The political scientist did not rule out the use of repressive methods on the eve of the elections

“Since, according to the Constitution, there must be at least three political forces in the Armenian parliament, we can say, judging by the activity and sociological surveys, that the struggle will take place between the ruling force “Civil Contract” and the three main opposition forces - “Strong Armenia” of Samvel Karapetyan, the “Armenia” bloc of Robert Kocharyan and “Prosperous Armenia” of Gagik Tsarukyan,” political scientist Naira Hayrumyan told a “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

Everyone has the same chances, although not It is possible that closer to the elections, the so-called "Moldovan scenario" will be applied, and one or even two of these parties will be banned from participating in the elections.

"Everyone has an equal chance, although it is possible that closer to the elections, the so-called "Moldovan scenario" will be applied, and one or even two of these parties will be banned from participating in the elections. But if all these opposition forces make it into parliament, and the current ruling party fails to secure 50+1 votes, then perhaps other parties will unite and elect a prime minister," the political scientist believes.

According to her, "numerous court cases and the detention of members and supporters of the Strong Armenia party suggest that the 'Moldova scenario' will be applied to this force, although so far not a single court case has proven that Karapetyan's party has resorted to illegal methods."

"Although the noise and excitement were successful, it negatively impacted the image of the Strong Armenia party. But over time, the opposite effect could also occur – repression by the authorities could make Karapetyan's party stronger. "But it's possible that law enforcement agencies and the ruling party will continue their attempts to discredit opposition parties in order to prevent them from participating in the elections," Hayrumyan noted.

The political scientist noted that Pashinyan's trip to Moscow, the David Minasyan case, and the authorities' calls to bar the opposition from parliament "have truly had an adverse effect on the ruling party's image." "All these stories of repression, arrests, and persecution could negatively impact Pashinyan's image. Moreover, this could also impact his support from the European Union—the EU was initially inclined to support Pashinyan, and even today announced the creation of a group/mission that will combat hybrid threats, implying threats from Russia. However, to date, Pashinyan's ruling party has not brought forward any accusations or evidence against Russia regarding hybrid threats. But it must be taken into account that Armenia's ruling party, although indirectly positioning itself as pro-European, has not taken a single step to confirm this position or its intention to separate Armenia from Russia. In this sense, the difference between the ruling party and the opposition forces positioning themselves as pro-Russian is small, as they are all heavily dependent on Russia. In reality, the elections will be dominated by fear, as each side is exploiting its own fear factor. Pashinyan's party is openly threatening war if his party is not elected, while other parties are threatening to end the economic preferences from Russia that Armenia still enjoys. "The post-election picture will depend on who succeeds in playing on the fear factor more," said Naira Hayrumyan.