The war in the Middle East brought political and economic benefits to Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan has strengthened its transport, logistics, energy, and diplomatic roles, while Iran's weakening opens up new prospects for strategic projects and international influence.

As "Caucasian Knot" wrote, Azerbaijan's ability to rapidly increase gas production and exports is limited by the capacity of existing fields and the Southern Gas Corridor, but in the coming years, the European Union can ensure its energy sustainability by participating in Azerbaijani projects, including in "green energy."

According to Shahin Hajiyev, editor of Turan's Analytical Service, the economic and geopolitical consequences of the current military escalation for Azerbaijan will depend on the outcome of the conflict.

"The obvious benefits for Azerbaijan lie in its increased transport and logistics importance. First and foremost, it is the safest route for evacuating foreign citizens from Iran. Secondly, Azerbaijan has become an alternative air corridor between Asia and Europe. Thirdly, Azerbaijan's energy importance as a hydrocarbon supplier has further increased amid the sharp rise in global oil and gas prices," the expert said in an interview with a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

In his opinion, if the clerical regime in Iran remains in power, even in a weakened form, Azerbaijan's political, transport, and energy importance for the EU and the West as a whole will further increase. "Azerbaijan's transit importance as a safe corridor between East and West will increase. In fact, this will be the only safe corridor. The events of recent weeks in the Persian Gulf and the threat of Iranian proxies in Yemen will create potential risks for shipments through the Suez Canal," Hajiyev said.

A weakened Iran will be limited in its ability to impede the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and further to Europe, if the parties decide to do so, Hajiyev believes. He also drew attention to the fact that Israel has already dealt a crushing blow to the Iranian Navy in the Caspian Sea, thus depriving it of the ability to strike Azerbaijan's oil and gas platforms from the sea.

According to Hajiyev, Azerbaijan's growing energy and geopolitical importance will contribute to a warming of relations between Brussels and Baku and a decrease in European attention to human rights issues in Azerbaijan.

Azad Isazade, a former employee of the Information and Analysis Department of the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, believes that the military escalation in the Middle East is opening up political and economic dividends for Azerbaijan.

“Against the backdrop of the war, oil and gas prices have risen sharply, and Azerbaijan, as an exporter of these hydrocarbons, has benefited. Moreover, the current situation has increased the energy sector’s importance for the future, not only as an oil and gas producer, but also as a potential exporter of green energy. Furthermore, Azerbaijan’s importance as an air corridor has increased. Amid the military escalation in the Middle East, air travel routes have shifted to the South Caucasus and Azerbaijan. Airplanes not only fly through Azerbaijan, but many refuel in Baku. Furthermore, all flights from Baku are overcrowded due to high demand related to the evacuation of foreigners from Iran. Many countries, at the level of heads of government and foreign ministries, have appealed to Baku for assistance in "Evacuation. And Azerbaijan, despite closed land borders, allowed foreigners to cross. Today, Azerbaijan has supported foreign countries in evacuating foreigners; tomorrow, Baku can confidently seek these countries' support in voting on various issues in international and regional organizations," Isazade said.

In his opinion, given Azerbaijan's partnerships with Israel and the United States, as well as with Arab states, and at the same time, its normal ties with one branch of the Iranian government, and, in particular, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Baku, if necessary, could play a mediating role in resolving the conflict or at least provide a platform for negotiations.

According to political observer Tapdig Farhadoglu, Azerbaijan is already reaping geopolitical benefits from the military crisis in the Middle East. "Azerbaijan received political support from the international community when drones flew from Iran into the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Representatives from more than 70 countries condemned these strikes and expressed solidarity in Baku," the expert said.

He called the visit of EU Council President Antonio Costa to Azerbaijan a significant event, despite the war on the country's southern border. The analyst particularly noted that Aliyev and Costa signed a joint statement, demonstrating their commitment to expanding ties and elevating them to the level of a strategic partnership.

“Interestingly, this policy document did not mention human rights and democracy. Removing this topic from the bilateral partnership agenda is undoubtedly a success for official Baku, which for many years has expressed dissatisfaction with statements from Brussels regarding human rights and democracy issues, which Azerbaijan considers its internal affairs,” Farhadoglu emphasized.

In his opinion, Iran’s weakening as a result of the war will reduce its ability to exert pressure on Baku. “Iran has played a destructive role in the region for decades. Tehran torpedoed the development of the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Ultimately, the Convention was adopted in a framework form, and the issue of seabed delimitation between Iran and Azerbaijan remained open. Taking advantage of this, Iran is preventing Azerbaijan from developing promising oil structures in the southern Caspian. In 2001, an Iranian military vessel openly threatened an Azerbaijani research vessel conducting exploration in the Araz-Alov-Sharg structures and forced it to leave the area. Now, of course, the Iranians will have fewer levers of pressure, especially after the defeat of their Caspian fleet,” the analyst said.