Analysts assess the risks for Armenia due to the war in Iran.

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Military action in Iran threatens Armenia with an influx of refugees, spreading the war to the Caucasus, and renders the Zangezur transport corridor project obsolete.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," 2,057 people have been evacuated from Iran to Azerbaijan , including 362 Azerbaijani citizens and 291 Russian citizens. Russians are advised to leave Iran via Armenia. A collection of humanitarian aid for arriving Iranians has begun in Yerevan, and an ambassador for one of the foundations stated that up to a million people could arrive in Armenia.

Political scientist Manvel Sargsyan, political scientist Artur Khachikyan, Iranologist Vardan Voskanyan, and military expert Artak Zakaryan spoke to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent about the risks to Armenia in connection with the war between the US and Israel with Iran.

"From the first day, the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran forced all the small countries of the Middle East to think about their fate, since everything these countries had placed their hopes on for half a century—American military bases and capital—has turned from a source of security and prosperity into an existential threat," Manvel noted. Sargsyan.

The main lesson for small countries is that security is not ensured solely by good relations with neighbors or alliances with great powers.

"The war is not being waged solely against Iran. In fact, Iran is only part of broader processes. The international political and economic system, which the United States itself spent decades building, is changing. Now they are effectively destroying it, fearing losing control of the structures they created. The main lesson for small countries is that security is not ensured solely by good relations with neighbors or alliances with great powers. "Small states must pursue policies that prevent others from using force against them," the political scientist noted. Regarding the possibility of the war spreading to the Caucasus, Sargsyan noted that "this danger is primarily associated with Azerbaijan, which has been repeatedly accused of hosting extremist elements on its territory, and any actions from Azerbaijani territory could provoke a retaliatory reaction." "The difference in positions between Turkey and Azerbaijan is also an important factor. Azerbaijan is trying to demonstrate support for Israel and the United States, while Turkey is trying to avoid steps that could complicate relations with Iran. If one of these countries is drawn into the war, the conflict could quickly spread to our region. If Azerbaijan finds itself in a difficult situation, it is difficult to imagine that Turkey will not provide assistance." In such a case, the issue could directly affect the territory of Armenia, since Turkey has virtually no other means of supporting Azerbaijan," Sargsyan emphasized.

You must behave in such a way that no one dares to force you to bow to them.

The expert noted that "the war between the US, Israel, and Iran indicates that fraternal and good-neighborly relations have turned into mutual hatred and aggression, and that there has been a realization that the weakening American empire is destroying the prosperous world it created," and that "those who still pin their hopes for the future on an alliance with the United States are no less concerned that good-neighborly relations are no longer a guarantee." "In Armenia, too, for decades, all the hopes of the political class for security and development have been linked to good-neighborly relations in the region and an alliance with the great powers. But in reality, given modern realities, it is necessary to understand that neither the master nor the neighbor cares about the other, but pursues only their own benefit. You must behave in such a way that no one dares to force you to bow to them. There is no other way to exist,” said political scientist Manvel Sargsyan.

The war in Iran demonstrates the situation in the world

“The war in Iran is a large-scale regional war that clearly shows what a world looks like in which there is no international law and everything is decided by brute force,” noted Artur Khachikyan.

Regarding the risks for Armenia, Khachikyan noted the threat of “a flow of refugees and Azerbaijan’s exploitation of the situation to penetrate into Armenian territory.” “For Armenia, the situation in Iran poses the following risks, mainly related to refugees. This is a new flow of refugees into Armenia – this time from Iranian territory. There is also a flow of refugees from Iran to Azerbaijan, which will provide the Azerbaijani authorities with an excellent opportunity to once again demand the return of 300,000 Azerbaijanis to Armenia. Also, the flow of refugees into Azerbaijan and their spontaneous or organized penetration from Azerbaijan into the territory of Syunik (southern Armenia) and the demand for the establishment of a “security zone” in Syunik under the control of the Azerbaijani and Turkish military,” Khachikyan expressed his opinion.