Analysts have named the recipients of Kadyrov's statement about a new prison term

Ramzan Kadyrov's statements about his intention to participate in the 2026 Chechen presidential elections are primarily addressed to those elites who expect his resignation, and he has no need to negotiate with the Kremlin. 

As reported by the " Caucasian Knot ," during a live Q&A on December 14, Ramzan Kadyrov stated that he was fed up with power, but would run for the republic's head of state in 2026 if the president nominated him and the people supported him. Kadyrov had already announced his intention  to run in the next Chechen presidential election back in July 2023, commenting on rumors circulating at the time about his possible replacement. 

Ramzan Kadyrov's announcement of his participation in the Chechen presidential elections next year should not be interpreted as his demonstratively reluctant acceptance of power based on the "will of the people" and the top leadership, according to Alexey Gunya , a senior researcher at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a doctor of geographical sciences . He believes Kadyrov intends to analyze public demand for change by assessing the response to these statements. 

"He understands that quite profound changes have taken place in the state and society, and that certain adjustments and compromises are necessary. This form of public announcement is more of a test of the timing of the moment when these overdue changes should be implemented," he told the "Caucasian Knot."

The analyst noted that this statement could appeal to a variety of audiences. "This statement, in its various nuances, is universally applicable to all segments of the population—the federal center, Chechen elites, and ordinary residents of the republic. But I believe that negotiating with the Kremlin over funding, authority, or succession is out of the question. Even after a change of power, continuity in authority and funding for the region will remain for a long time," Gunya noted.

Svetlana Gannushkina, head of the Civic Assistance Committee* , sees Kadyrov's statement as a plea for Putin's support. "I believe this is a direct appeal to Putin to nominate him again for this post. And, secondly, an appeal to the people, a call to speak out in his support. There's no doubt that the people of Chechnya will quickly embrace this and begin asking him not to abandon them. There are numerous historical examples of such actions: Ivan the Terrible, sensing his throne was shaky, fled Moscow to Alexandrov and waited for people to come and ask him to return. And, of course, he did," she told the Caucasian Knot.

The human rights activist also believes that Kadyrov has no need to negotiate with the federal government over funding, authority, or succession. "He already does and gets whatever he wants. In this regard, he has no need to negotiate with the Kremlin," she noted.  

Political scientist Ruslan Kutayev * believes this statement confirms that Kadyrov's health will allow him to lead the republic until 2031. He believes that Kadyrov is thus making a veiled response to circulating speculation about a serious deterioration in his health. 

"In other words, he's telling everyone, 'You won't get it.' His statement is intended for everyone, but not for a domestic audience. People in the republic itself understand that nothing will change unless changes occur in the Kremlin," he told the "Caucasian Knot."

The political scientist believes the FSB is the primary target of Kadyrov's statement. "The appeal is primarily addressed to the FSB, as it is this agency that most wants a change of power in Chechnya. They are tired of waiting for his death and a change of power. And the Chechens will simply sit quietly and wait for all this to change; that's the best solution for them," Kutayev concluded. 

A Russian expert on the Caucasus , who wished to remain anonymous, doesn't see Kadyrov's statement as a way to secure a pre-approved "mandate" from the Kremlin. "I don't think a public statement of this kind can take place between the Kremlin and the head of Chechnya without prior approval. This statement isn't for the Kremlin; it's for the elites and the domestic audience, who are closely monitoring his health and don't fully understand what's going on with him. This statement makes it clear that he's ready to remain in politics," he told the Caucasian Knot.

The analyst also doesn't consider the Chechen leader's words to be a sign of bargaining with the federal center over funding, authority, or succession, since "such issues are resolved behind the scenes." "Despite his influence, the Chechen leader cannot publicly bargain with the Kremlin; it's all done behind the scenes. And I don't think there's any need for it: the Kremlin accepts virtually all of his requests as necessary conditions for stability and security in the republic and the North Caucasus more broadly," he explained.

* listed as a foreign agent.

** Meta (which owns Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp) is banned in Russia.