Analysts assess the balance of power ahead of parliamentary elections in Armenia.

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The Central Election Commission of Armenia has begun accepting applications for participation in the parliamentary elections and approved the schedule of key events. According to analysts, the parties of Nikol Pashinyan, Robert Kocharyan, and Samvel Karapetyan will be the key competitors in the elections.

As reported by the "Caucasian Knot," Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan signed a decree setting the date for the next elections to the National Assembly; they will be held on June 7. Even before the exact date was set, Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract party and the opposition parliamentary bloc "Armenia" of second president Robert Kocharyan announced their participation in the elections. Also declaring their intention to participate in the upcoming elections at various times were the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, the Armenian National Congress of first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Wings of Unity led by former Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, New Force led by former Yerevan Mayor Hayk Marutyan, Enlightened Armenia led by Edmon Marukyan, and businessman Samvel Karapetyan's political movement "Our Way." The parties declared the need to protect the country's interests and the problems faced by its citizens.

The Central Electoral Commission of Armenia has begun accepting applications for participation in the parliamentary elections and approved the schedule of key events. "According to the approved schedule for the preparation and conduct of the regular elections to the National Assembly of Armenia, scheduled for June 7, 2026, the main events began on February 9," the statement read.

From February 9 to April 23, parties or party blocs can submit electronic applications to the Central Electoral Commission to obtain an account. From April 13 until 6:00 PM local time on April 23, parties and electoral blocs will submit documents to the Central Election Commission for registration. Registration of party or bloc electoral lists will take place from April 23 to May 3, until 6:00 PM local time. Next, a draw will be held on May 3 to assign a sequential number to the election participants. The election campaign period is from May 8 to June 5. Candidates for parliament included on the electoral lists must submit a declaration of assets and income to the Central Election Commission by May 13.

To cover the elections and voting, accreditation applications and a list of media representatives must be submitted to the CEC from February 7 to May 28, while observer accreditation applications must be submitted from February 7 to May 3.

The Television and Radio Commission of Armenia reported that the prices for paid airtime per minute during the pre-election period were approved on February 12. A minute of airtime on the Public Television of Armenia costs 45,000 drams ($119), on the First News Channel - 18,000 drams ($47.6), a minute of airtime on the Public Radio - 1,800 drams ($4.76).

The following parties have announced their intention to participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia: the Civil Contract party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the Wings of Unity of former Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan, the Dok party of Vardan Ghukasyan, the Fatherland party of former NSS director Artur Vanetsyan, the New Force of former Yerevan mayor Hayk Marutyan, the Meritocratic Party of Armenia of Gurgen Simonyan, the Reformists of Armenia of Vahan Babayan, the People's Union of Suren Petrosyan, the The Armenian National Congress, whose list will be headed by party vice chairman Levon Zurabyan.

On February 12, the "Our Way" movement announced the creation of the "Strong Armenia" political force, with businessman and philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan unanimously elected as its leader at the congress. The party also announced its intention to participate in the parliamentary elections.

Tashir Group owner Samvel Karapetyan has been charged with calls to overthrow the constitutional order and economic crimes. In November 2025, an Armenian court extended his pretrial detention, but on December 30, the businessman was transferred to house arrest. On January 12, the businessman's lawyer reported that the Prosecutor General's Office had demanded Karapetyan's return to pretrial detention.

On February 15, the Haykakan Kve (Armenian Voice) party held a congress where it officially decided to participate in the elections with the goal of "taking political responsibility for a secure, free, and just future for Armenia."

Oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia Party and the Mother Armenia Party will participate in the parliamentary elections together. Mother Armenia Party leader Andranik Tevanyan stated at a congress in Yerevan on February 15 that they were "fully satisfied" with the Prosperous Armenia party's election program and called for "opposition forces to participate in the elections as a united front," adding that "a change of power is necessary," and the parliamentary elections should mark the end of "a page of defeat and shame."

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutyun" will participate in the elections as part of the "Hayastan (Armenia)" opposition bloc founded by Armenia's second president, Robert Kocharyan.

Our goal is to have a strong alliance that, through combined forces, will achieve a decisive result.

According to ARF representative Ishkhan Saghatelyan,"a more influential and ambitious alliance based on the current one will participate in the elections." "We are not aiming to have 8-10 seats in parliament. Our goal is to have a strong alliance that, through its combined efforts, will have a decisive result. In the last elections, the Hayastan bloc received about 280,000 votes. The remaining 20-plus parties did not pass the electoral threshold. But we are not suggesting that they not participate in the elections, but rather calling on opposition forces to put their ambitions aside and direct their efforts and capabilities toward creating party blocs that will be more significant in confronting the current authorities," Saghatelyan said.

In early February, the Elevate public initiative conducted a survey among Armenian citizens to determine the rating scale of two dozen leaders of political and civil forces who have found themselves in the center of public attention. "A total of 1,399 people took part in the poll titled 'The Most Trustworthy Among the Trustworthy', which lasted from January 31 to February 6. The votes were distributed as follows: Gurgen Simonyan - 35%, Vardan Ghukasyan - 16%, Aram Sargsyan - 9%, Nikol Pashinyan - 7%, Samvel Karapetyan - 6%, Nairi Sargsyan - 4%, Arman Tatoyan - 3%, against all - 3%; Edmon Marukyan, Levon Zurabyan, Robert Kocharyan - 2% each; Avetik Chalabyan, Yervand Tarverdyan, Serzh Sargsyan, Vahan Babayan, Vrujan Avetisyan, Tigran Khzmalyan, Tigran Urikhyan, Artak Sargsyan, Karen Sargsyan, and Arsen Sargsyan each received 1% of the vote. Artur Vanetsyan, Gagik Tsarukyan, Karen Arayan, Hayk Manasyan, Hayk Marutyan, Andreas Ghukasyan, and Nina Karapetyants all received less than 1%. A poll will then be conducted on the five individuals on the list who received the most votes. "Also, after the approval of applications for participation in the general elections, which will take place on June 7 of this year, we are planning an expanded survey among candidates," a representative of the Elevate initiative informed.

Analysts have named the main competitors in the elections

Political observer Naira Hayrumyan and public figure Narek Malyan commented on the upcoming parliamentary elections to a "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

"The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia are unique in terms of the geopolitical and regional situation that is currently actively developing <...> "The election campaign and its results will depend on foreign policy processes to a greater extent than ever before," said Naira Hayrumyan.

"If previously foreign policy influence in the elections was manifested mainly through Russian projects and, to a lesser extent, through Western ones, now the factor of Azerbaijan and Turkey has been added, which, both tacitly and quite openly, influences the situation," she noted.

Several key forces have declared themselves and intend to fight for real

According to her, "the election race, one could say, has already begun, and quite actively, since several key forces have declared themselves and intend to fight for real." "These are the ruling Civil Contract party, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia's second president, Robert Kocharyan, and the party of Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan, who is currently under arrest in Armenia. Judging by their apparent financial resources and influence, these three forces could become the main contenders in the elections. As for the Republican Party of Armenia's third president, Serzh Sargsyan, judging by the lack of statements about its intention to participate in the campaign, it will most likely decline. This could also become a new factor in the Armenian political environment, since the Republican Party positions itself as a nationally oriented force, guided by the ideas of Armenian ideologist and military leader Garegin Nzhdeh, and acting in national interests," the expert said.

According to her, "the non-participation of the Republican Party of Armenia in the elections will mean that the political struggle will unfold between forces that lack a clearly defined national ideology." "In particular, Nikol Pashinyan's party talks about regionalization, constantly emphasizing the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but simultaneously declaring that Armenia should become a 'crossroads,' that is, act as a link between states. Robert Kocharyan, for his part, makes no secret of his advocacy for a closer alliance with Russia. Samvel Karapetyan, apparently, is leaning toward positioning Armenia as an ally of both the US and Russia. He previously expressed the idea of ​​making Russian and English official languages ​​alongside Armenian. Furthermore, his supporters did not oppose a number of initiatives, including the so-called "Trump road," the peace treaty, and the November 9, 2020, statement on Nagorno-Karabakh. "In the future, it is possible that these forces could form a complementary format of interaction, in which one side would take a provisionally pro-American and pro-Turkish position, and the other a pro-Russian one, acting in line with the logic of the American-Russian project regarding Armenia," the political observer noted.

Narek Malyan believes that it is necessary to explain to the public "that parliamentary elections are essentially equivalent to the previous presidential elections." "Their results will determine who will govern the country for the next five years. The current system operates on the principle of 'the winner takes all,' and the losers are left with only the formal role of the opposition," he said.

Samvel Karapetyan's political force could be a possible favorite.

"For a real change of power, the opposition needs to unite around one favorite. Samvel Karapetyan's political force could be a possible favorite, but there is a lack of unity among opposition players, which dissipates limited resources and reduces the chances of victory for competing opposition candidates," Malyan believes.

The activist believes that street mobilization is also important, "without which a change of power is unlikely, regardless of the scenario - whether it is elections or Impeachment."

Malyan noted that "a number of political forces are already laying the groundwork in their public rhetoric to explain a possible defeat, shifting the emphasis of responsibility to voters—statements increasingly include the phrase "the people decide," which after the elections could transform into the thesis "society is to blame." The public figure also noted the increased activity in recent months of supporters of participation in elections, whom he associates with pro-government financial circles. They present elections as the only way to resolve the political crisis, and critical voices are harshly criticized. "Such activity is largely opportunistic in nature and is linked to interest in the resources circulating during the election period."